Even More Bullish on Our Industry

I’m even more bullish on our industry this week than before. Why?

We just released a report, called the Channel Forecast Model, which predicts 3.4 percent annual growth through 2016 for the automotive aftermarket industry, likely to continue outpacing growth of the overall economy.

The forecast demonstrates that despite facing strong new vehicle sales, historic high gas prices and a flattening of miles driven, our industry is poised for steady growth. Among the positive market drivers is the oldest-ever average vehicle age of 11.3 years, and the overall age mix of vehicles, which continues to favor older vehicles.

Our association partnered with the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association to produce the model to create a single and unified view of industry size, growth rate and outlook. The complete Channel Forecast Model will be included in the 2014 Digital AAIA Aftermarket Factbook, to be released next week.

Spring Has Sprung at AAIA Spring Leadership Days

While spring weather may have sprung back at our headquarters in Bethesda, Md., the weather outside is frightful here in “sunny” Bonita Springs, Fla. at the 2013 AAIA Spring Leadership Days. But the upside of the stormy weather outside is that it eliminates the distraction of gazing longingly out the window at the golf course or the pool. Beginning yesterday, our nearly 400 volunteer leaders, VIPs, staff and guests got down to business, kicking off three days of more than 30 board, committee and workgroup meetings and networking events.

I am always amazed and gratified to see this impressive number of industry professionals who have taken the time away from their businesses to help direct the association’s many programs and initiatives. These are the folks who work together to provide the vision and direction of YOUR association all year long, to steer our work on behalf of the industry that plays such a vital role in keeping America on the road.

A 97-Month Car Loan?! Really?

You may have read that some banks are offering consumers as much as a 97-month car loan. Really? The idea is to stretch out the terms long enough to reduce the monthly payment. But an eight-year financing deal screams “upside down’’ again and again. Let’s admit this is a subprime car loan at the least, and a scheme close to indentured servitude at best. Wait a minute — weren’t subprime housing loans the herald of our latest recession?

There is no doubt that today’s vehicles are engineering and manufacturing wonders – more durable than ever before. There is no doubt that doubling the terms could keep customers out of competitors’ showrooms for twice as long. But eight years?! You can age scotch and bourbon that long and improve the taste, but cars are like association presidents: they don’t necessarily age gracefully. Eight years will keep consumers away from significant safety improvements, technology upgrades and mileage gains. And when these go upside down, the value of used vehicles will drop faster than a cold beer on a hot day.

Do we learn nothing from history? Especially recent history?

It’s Tool Time: National Car Care Month

While every month is car care month for me, the official National Car Care Month (NCCM) in April is the absolute best time for the industry to rally together to reach motorists with the essential message of proper vehicle maintenance and repair. This year, the Car Care Council has made participating in NCCM and the “Be Car Care Aware” campaign as simple as opening your tool box – your ONLINE tool box, that is.

The council has a new industry-specific section of its website, www.carcare.org/industry-tool-box/, called the Industry Tool Box. Designed exclusively for aftermarket industry businesses, it provides the tools, materials, resources and how-to information needed to get started in helping educate consumers about the benefits of regular vehicle maintenance, care and repair. From handing out the popular car care guide to hosting a full-scale community vehicle check-up event (click here for all the events already scheduled around the country!), there is no shortage of ways for you to get involved in the industry’s popular consumer outreach program.

The Tool Box is organized into several tool box “drawers” labeled:

•           Get Started

•           Participate in Car Care Months

•           Host an Event

•           Promotional Materials

•           Communicate with Your Customers

•           The Car Care Guide

•           Tune up Your Website

•           Car Care Video Clips

•           Latest News

•           Resources

If you use resources from all the drawers or just one, the Industry Tool Box will provide you with all the right tools for your best-ever NCCM. Join us – and your industry colleagues – in celebrating the industry’s most important month!

Sequester Arrest

Living in Washington, D.C. means that you can get caught up in government issues that affect the rest of the country not a whit. Take sequestration, for example. Regardless of what nincompoop invented it, I actually thought that maybe we should avoid it by negotiating a bit. I couldn’t have been more wrong. This city can’t even get a 10 percent spending cut right. Every business person in America has cut 10 percent from their budget, project, projections, initiative and expense account. Thoughtfully considered the consequences, evaluated the nuances and then did it. Didn’t whine, try scare tactics, ignore it or suggest others get off their ^%*%$es. Every family in America has cut 10 percent from their monthly budget on occasion without a peep. And guess what, the national and local media didn’t spend countless hours examining phony consequences. Life went on. Lesson learned. I am not smart enough to have a solution for what happens on Capitol Hill, just a few short Metro stops from where I am, but I am pretty darn sure that if all the folks there were victims of any cut — of any kind — from the amount of vodka in a cocktail to a portion of their lifetime benefits, they would get things “righter” than they have.

The Manufacturing Sector on a Tear

“The manufacturing sector is on a tear,” one economist recently said.

For the first time in many years, it’s manufacturing that is being relied upon to lead the economy out of recession. A recent article in JounalNow.com reported, “American factories are humming and driving the economy forward.”

Another economist said, “After losing six million manufacturing jobs between 2001 and 2009, the American manufacturing sector has re-emerged as a beacon in an otherwise lackluster economic recovery.”

No one thinks manufacturing will return to its peak of the 1950s, but since the recession began improving a little over two years ago, factories have been contributing disproportionately to the recovery in hiring and the overall economy.

This manufacturing resurgence trend is very good news for the automotive aftermarket industry, all industries and all Americans. Manufacturing in the U.S. produces $1.8 trillion of value each year, or 12.2 percent, of our GDP. Manufacturing employs 12 million Americans.

And just this morning, I read about recent studies that found approximately 40 percent of U.S. manufacturing firms are considering moving their manufacturing plants back to America. Clearly, re-shoring is an encouraging trend that will impact manufacturing’s role in driving economic growth.

Three Big Reasons to Attend the 2013 Aftermarket eForum™

If you or someone in your company needs to better understand what the “new normal” aftermarketplace is and how it will be managed, then you CAN NOT MISS this year’s Aftermarket eForum™. Here are three big reasons why.

1. You’ll get real-world information and strategies about logistics, supply chain management, telematics, online retailers, virtual distributors and more – the highest-quality day and a half you’ll spend all year.
2. You’ll see an unprecedented lineup of visionaries who will shape the aftermarket’s future, including Lúcia Veiga Moretti, president, Delphi Product & Service Solutions; Fred Blumer; CEO, Vehcon and co-founder, Hughes Telematics; Gregory Boutte, vice president, eBay Motors, North America; Bryan Murphy, managing director, WHI Solutions; and Charlie Covert, vice president, customer solutions, automotive, UPS.
3. AAIA has compressed the schedule to a day and a half, and co-located with the Global Automotive Aftermarket Symposium (GAAS) for those interested in attending both events.

I look forward to seeing you at the Hyatt Regency O’Hare in Chicago May 22-23. Visit www.aftermarketeforum.org to REGISTER NOW.

If you’re not convinced by reading this, check out the video below.